The Arizona Electorate in 2026

Registration and Voting

Christopher Weber

Professor
School of Government and Public Policy
University of Arizona
chrisweber@arizona.edu

October 20, 2026

The Arizona Voter Project

The AVP provides public-facing tools, data, and analysis to understand the political, social, and cultural characteristics of the Arizona electorate, with public resources to access, experiment with, and interact with Arizona’s voter file.

Voter File Data

Regular builds

Data Warehouse

Processing

Public Data

Aggregated

Interpretation

Analysis

Visualization

Broader understanding

Data warehouse

Builds of the voter file over time, election records, Census data, and public opinion — secured under privacy protocols.

Public data

Voting data aggregated to the boundaries people actually argue about: counties, legislative and congressional districts, ZIP codes.

Analysis

Tools and research that turn the data into answers about who registers, who votes, and how.

Visualization

Maps, charts, and dashboards that make the results understandable and easy to explore.

Registration

The electoral landscape

Figures throughout come from the Arizona Voter Project voter-file build, August 7, 2026.

Maricopa alone is 59% of the state’s active registration — 2,543,827 of 4,282,107 active registered voters.
Add Pima (14.8%) and two counties hold roughly three quarters of the electorate.

The remaining thirteen are small but not uniform: Mohave is 56% Republican.
Apache is 50% Democratic, the most Democratic county in the state.

Registration in Arizona Counties

Congressional District 6

A historically competitive seat. Giffords (AZ-08, Jan 2007 – Jan 2012, resigned); Barber (AZ-08 special Jun 2012; AZ-02 Jan 2013 – Jan 2015); McSally (AZ-02 Jan 2015 – Jan 2019); Kirkpatrick (AZ-02 Jan 2019 – Jan 2023) — became CD 6 for 2022, when Juan Ciscomani first won it.
2024 (two-party vote): Ciscomani (R) 51.3% to Engel (D) 48.7% — a margin of 10,822 votes on 420,370 cast.
2022: Ciscomani (R) 50.73% to Engel (D) 49.23% — a margin of 5,232 votes on 349,283 cast, the seat’s first election under the new boundaries. AZ SoS 2022 General Election canvass.
Registration in CD 6 (Aug 2026 build): 29.7% Democratic · 35.0% neither party · 35.3% Republican.

Congressional District 6, over time

Total active: 512,368 to 539,125 (+5.2%)
Democratic: 156,193 to 159,933 (+2.4%)
Republican: 182,214 to 190,408 (+4.5%)
Neither party: 173,961 to 188,784 (+8.5%)
Fainter lines show CD 7, for comparison (the other Tucson district).

Registration, by County

Statewide: 28.2% Democratic · 36.5% neither party · 35.3% Republican
Democratic across counties range 38 points — 12.1% in Mohave to 50.1% in Apache
Republican range is almost exactly as much: 38 points — 18.5% in Santa Cruz to 56.2% in Mohave
Neither party is less variable: range is only 14 points — 27.5% in Apache to 41.4% in Yuma

38 points against 14. Each party’s share varies about 2.7 times as much across Arizona as the share registered with neither.

Registration, by Congressional District

District	Active registered	Democratic	Neither party	Republican
CD 1	511,169	26.7	35.2	38.0
CD 2	544,013	27.9	33.0	39.1
CD 3	331,913	42.6	42.7	14.7
CD 4	418,516	30.0	38.2	31.8
CD 5	539,360	21.3	36.3	42.4
CD 6	539,125	29.7	35.0	35.3
CD 7	421,596	39.5	40.0	20.5
CD 8	471,085	24.1	35.1	40.8
CD 9	543,253	19.7	36.7	43.6

Partisan differences are large: Democratic registration range 23 points (19.7% in CD 9 to 42.6% in CD 3); Republican range 29 points (14.7% in CD 3 to 43.6% in CD 9).
Neither party is less variable: its range is only 10 points (33.0% in CD 2 to 42.7% in CD 3) across the nine districts.

How Arizonans vote

Early voting is the norm

Statewide · 2026-08-07 build

74.1%

on the Active Early Voting List — a ballot arrives automatically for every election you remain enrolled.

85.5%

of ballots in the November 2024 general were cast early.

87.9%

of ballots in the July 2026 primary were cast early.

“Early” covers three different forms of voting using an early ballot — returned by mail, dropped at a secure box, or voted in person before Election Day.

There is a partisan difference

Democratic registrants lead on early voting: 94.0% of their July 2026 primary ballots were cast early, versus 86.6% for Republicans.
The gap is more pronounced in the primary: Democrats were 7.3 points ahead of Republicans, up from 3.7 in November 2024.
Neither party / other trails (71.6% in the primary). Independents on the AEVL must ask for a party ballot.

Registration among the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP)

CVAP: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year estimates, citizens 18 and over (5,506,299), held fixed across builds.

Conclusion

Concluding remarks

Registration is concentrated in two counties. Maricopa and Pima hold 74.2% of active registrants.
No party holds a majority. Statewide, active voters are 35% Republican, 28% Democratic, and 37% neither party.
Arizona votes early ballot, in large numbers. 86% of November 2024 ballots were cast early, and 74% of voters are on the early list.
Participation. Active registrants peaked at 81% of citizens of voting age, and 62% cast a ballot in 2024.

Thank You!

Questions: chrisweber@arizona.edu

Additional Information

Data

Voter file: 16 regular (typically monthly) builds of Arizona’s voter file, 2024-06-03 to 2026-08-07. Party shares are of active registered voters; “neither” is everyone not registered Democratic or Republican.
Aggregation: all figures are aggregates; units with fewer than 500 registrants are suppressed.
Population: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year estimates, table B29001 (citizens 18 and over, 5,506,299), applied to every build.
2024 turnout: Arizona Secretary of State official canvass, November 2024 general (3,428,011 ballots cast).
Early voting: ballots cast early and the Active Early Voting List, from the voter file builds.
Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS): reports a slightly different 2024 ballot count than the state canvass; the canvass is used here.
Congressional District 6: 2024 results from the Secretary of State canvass.

Neither / other, by county

36.5%

of active registrants statewide
(1,563,498 of 4,282,107)

Party not specified

82.2%

1,285,873 · 30.0% of active

Other party

12.9%

201,121 · 4.7% of active

No Labels

3.0%

46,528 · 1.1% of active

Libertarian

1.9%

29,976 · 0.7% of active